Update: A Detailed Look At Expected Severe Weather Outbreak

March 14, 2025

A severe weather outbreak is expected Saturday through Saturday night. A complete breakdown of what is expected locally is below. (More graphics are at the bottom of the page. Click any graphic to enlarge.)

Tonight through early Saturday morning: We are anticipating isolated thunderstorms to develop late this evening into the overnight hours, especially for areas west. This initial round of storms is rather conditional, however, if storms do manage to develop, they will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night: The initial round of storms should come to an end by daybreak. In fact, we may actually have a brief dry period through the rest of the morning hours. Do not let this fool you though as scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon hours. The environment by this point will be supportive of a likely severe outbreak, consisting of strong to potentially violent long-track tornadoes, damaging to destructive winds, and large hail. This round will come in two waves: the scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon followed by a broken squall line during the evening hours. The North Escambia  area is in a Moderate Risk [risk level 4/5]. Do not focus on where the high risk area is located. Our entire local area will be primed for significant severe weather so do not let your guard down . Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings. Storms should diminish from west to east during the overnight hours Saturday into early Sunday morning.

Non-thunderstorm winds: Outside of thunderstorms, it will be quite windy across the area. Over land, a Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10am Saturday through 12am Sunday across the entire local area. Sustained winds of around 20-25 mph, with gusts to around 40 mph can be expected. Similarly, a Gale Warning is in place for our the Gulf waters out 60nm from 10am through 7pm on Saturday. Frequent gusts to around 35-40 knots and seas building to 7-10 feet can be expected in the warned area. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for our local bays and sounds for wind gusts to around 30 knots.

Beach/coastal hazards: The increase in winds will bring dangerous surf conditions to our local area beaches. A High Risk of rip currents goes into effect tonight and will last through Monday. A High Surf Warning will be in effect from noon Saturday through 6am Sunday for large breaking waves of around 7-9 feet. At this time, we are not expecting any large-scale minor coastal flooding, however, with the gusty winds and higher surf, some splashover cannot be ruled out over some of our typical flood-prone/low-lying areas along the coast.

The detailed forecast for the  North Escambia area:

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 76. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 57. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 65.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 69.

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Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under Archive