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Forecasters Predict Slightly Below Average 2026 Hurricane Season
April 10, 2026
A forecast released Thursday by Colorado State University is calling for a slightly below average hurricane forecast.
The forecast is due to a robust El Niño as a primary factor for their prediction of 13 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes and two to become major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricanes. These numbers are below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven and three, respectively.
El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that is characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These winds result in increased vertical wind shear which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Team is part of the Department of Atmospheric Science in the Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering at CSU and is one of the top ranked Atmospheric Science programs in the world.
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