Tropical Storm Arthur Development Odds Increase To 50%

June 15, 2026

The National Hurricane Center has increased the development chances to 50% for a Gulf system.

“A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday,” the NHC said Monday afternoon.

If a storm forms, it will be named Tropical Storm Arthur.

Regardless of development, the system will produce periods of intense rainfall affecting interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

“Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required on Tuesday,” NHC said.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue the first half of the week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a high risk on Wednesday.

Periods of showers and storms will affect the area through the week with an increasing risk of flooding issues as the Gulf system merges with an advancing front. Moderate to strong winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

RELATED: Showers And Storms, Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Midweek

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Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under Archive