Florida Presidential Fight A ‘1 Percent Election’
November 7, 2016
There might not be a national television commentator writing “Florida Florida Florida” on a whiteboard, as Tim Russert infamously did on the night of the 2000 presidential election, but both parties will be eagerly watching the Sunshine State on Tuesday as the polls close.
For real-estate mogul Donald Trump, the surprise Republican presidential nominee, Florida’s trove of 29 electoral votes is a necessary building block of virtually any scenario that ends with him winning the White House. For former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a victory in Florida carries with it the potential of a knockout blow, all but ensuring that Trump won’t be able to cobble together a winning collection of states.
Florida also stands at an intersection of many of the issues reshaping the American electorate, both in 2016 and beyond: Can Trump turn out the disaffected white voters who powered him to the GOP nomination in numbers large enough to win the general election as well? Will African-American voters remain energized after the historic glow of electing the nation’s first black president? Does the nation’s growing Latino population make hard-line immigration policies like those advocated by Trump politically untenable?
That has prompted both campaigns to invest heavily in the state, both in persuading voters and, more recently, turning them out to cast ballots. Trump, Clinton and President Barack Obama — one of Clinton’s most effective surrogates — have repeatedly bounced in and out of the state during the closing weeks of the election.
The result has been a race in which the two candidates are running virtually neck-and-neck in polling averages, and the prospect of a late night or even another dreaded recount looms.
“I really think we’re right where we always are, which is a 1 percent election,” said Susan MacManus, a political-science professor at the University of South Florida.
The messages of the campaigns and their allies in Florida have closely mirrored those nationwide. For Republicans: Clinton’s private email server and involvement in her family foundation show her to be an untrustworthy and out-of-touch member of the Washington, D.C., elite that Trump rails against.
“Our country is rigged, it’s crooked and it’s broken,” Trump said during a recent campaign swing through Tallahassee. ” … The criminal conduct of Hillary Clinton threatens the foundations of our democracy; it really does. But we’re going to turn it around. A new day begins for America and it starts on Nov. 8.”
Clinton, meanwhile, has mixed an appeal for unity with lacerating attacks on Trump’s temperament, fitness for offense and divisive comments.
“When I think about all of the people that Donald Trump has insulted in this campaign, literally, he has insulted a huge majority of the American people,” she said recently in Sanford, according to a transcript provided by the campaign. “I mean, think about it. He started with immigrants, moved on to Latinos, African Americans, Muslims, people with disabilities, prisoners of war, and then women.”
If the goal was to drive voters to the polls, it might be working. Nearly 4.9 million Floridians had voted early, either by mail or in person, by Thursday morning, according to state statistics. Again, the results so far appear to be on the edge: Democrats had returned almost 1.94 million ballots; Republicans almost 1.95 million. The rest of the votes came from Floridians registered with third parties or without a party affiliation.
Still, both parties have reason to worry about the makeup of those voters. On the Democratic side, some Clinton supporters were concerned that black voters didn’t appear to be showing up in large enough numbers early on — potentially eating into the demographic advantage that Democrats believe they enjoy in Florida presidential elections.
“The question, of course, is whether or not the African-American turnout is going to be comparable,” said Kevin Wagner, a political-science professor at Florida Atlantic University.
Another key part of the Obama coalition seems to be voting.
“What we are seeing is, Hispanics actually are turning out in surge proportions so far,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who oversaw Obama’s Florida campaign in 2008.
Meanwhile, at least one previously solid bloc of Republican voters doesn’t appear to be enthusiastic about Trump: Cuban-Americans who dominate Miami-Dade County politics. In the March presidential primary, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio defeated Trump in one of Florida’s 67 counties: Miami-Dade.
Rubio is likely trying to turn out those same voters again, this time in his battle to hold onto his Senate seat.
“That’s an area (Trump) needs to shore up because they’re high-turnout voters,” MacManus said.
Trump’s fortunes might depend more, though, on whether he can get white, working-class voters frustrated with the economy to the polls. Some of those voters have not traditionally participated in elections, or might not have backed Republicans as strongly in the past as they will Trump’s protectionist message.
“If Trump wins,” Schale said, “it’s going to be because he just drove Democratic support among whites into the ground.”
by Brandon Larrabee, The News Service of Florida
What’s On Your Ballot?
November 7, 2016
This graphic from the Escambia County Supervisor of Elections shows what races are on the ballot in Escambia County in tomorrow’s general election. To download a customized sample ballot, visit EscambiaVotes.com.
Out Of Control Backyard Fire Levels Storage Shed
November 6, 2016
A backyard burn barrel fire got out of control Saturday afternoon in Century and leveled a storage shed before firefighters arrived.
The first fire fighters on scene at the fire in the 800 block of East Highway 4 reported the shed was fully involved and on the ground when they arrived moments after the first call for help.
There were no injuries and no damage to a nearby home or business.
The Century and McDavid stations of Escambia Fire Rescue, Flomaton Fire Department, Atmore Fire Department and Jay Fire Department were all dispatched to the fire, along with Escambia County EMS.
Photos for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Child Airlifted To Hospital After Being Thrown From Pony
November 6, 2016
A six-year old girl was airlifted to the hospital late Saturday afternoon after being thrown from a large pony.
The accident happened in the 7200 block of Chestnut Lane in Molino. The girl was transported by LifeFlight helicopter to Sacred Heart Hospital as a “trauma alert”. No update on her condition was available.
Further information was not released.
Reader submitted photo for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Early Voting Ends; Voter Turnout Already At 44 Percent
November 6, 2016
Early voting ended Saturday in Escambia County with 56,174 early votes cast. Combined with 36,598 vote-by-ballots returned to date, a total of 92,772 votes are already cast in this year’s general election.
Combined voter turnout from early vote and vote-by-mail is currently 44 percent.
Early voting was up 29 percent over 2012 and 12 percent over 2008.
Of the votes cast to date, 46,439 were Republicans, 32,267 were Democrats and 14,101 were “other”.
Tate Aggies Clean Veterans Memorial
November 6, 2016
The Tate High School Aggies gave back Saturday at Pensacola’s memorial to those that gave all. Members of the Aggie Nation hand-cleaned the Wall South and other memorials that honor those that served our nation at Veterans Memorial Park in Pensacola. Photos for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Walnut Hill Fire Honors Firemen, Community Members During Fish Fry
November 6, 2016
The Walnut Hill Volunteer Fire Department honored members of the community and the department during their 47th annual fish fry Saturday.
AJ Beachy was named Firefighter of the Year, an award chosen by his fellow firefighters. Eric Koehn was named Officer of the Year and recognized for his years of service to the department. Jerry Poulson received the Walnut Hill Volunteer Fire Department’s Community Service Award for outstanding and dedicated service to the community.
Hundreds of people enjoyed fried catfish or grilled chicken plates during the event, with proceeds to be used to provide assistance to displaced fire victims in the area. OneBlood’s Big Red Bus was also on hand for a blood drive.
Pictured below: Walnut Hill District Chief Chris Brown with award winners (L-R) Jerry Poulsen, AJ Beachy and Eric Koehn.
Cantonment Man Passes Away After Motorcycle Crash
November 6, 2016
A Cantonment man has passed away as the result of injuries he received last Thursday night when his motorcycle was rear-ended.
The Florida Highway Patrol said 87-year old Thomas James Harwell was northbound on Highway 29 approaching Diamond Dairy Road about 7:00. He failed to stop for traffic and his 1994 pickup collided with the rear of a Honda Goldwing driven by 53-year old Phillip Roger Bryant of Cantonment. Bryant was thrown from his motorcycle by the force of the collision.
Bryant was transported to Sacred Heart Hospital where family members say he has passed away.
Harwell was not injured.
Any charges are pending the outcome of a FHP investigation.
Tate Varsity Cheerleaders Win Division At Biloxi Cheer For Hope Competition
November 6, 2016
The Tate High School varsity cheerleaders won first place Saturday in the small coed division at the Cheer for Hope competition in Biloxi, MS. The squad is led coach Jess King. Photo for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Pearl Harbor Survivor Shares Memories During Molino Library Program
November 6, 2016
Francis L. Emond was lined up with his fellow Navy members for morning colors on December 7, 1941, when he watched the ships in front of him sink in the attack on Pearl Harbor. The 98-year old related his memories as a Pearl Harbor survivor Saturday afternoon at the Molino Branch Library.
He was part of the band lined up on stern of the USS Pennsylvania, which was dry docked with clear view of the harbor. His memories of that morning, December 7, 1941, are very poignant.
“We could look all over Pearl Harbor and see all the ships that were anchored,” he said. “It was a beautiful sight, a very clear and nice morning. The air was very fragrant in Hawaii; you smelled flowers there all the time. A very, very pleasant place to be.
“I looked up and coming in…was a line of planes. The first one made a turn off, and something come up off the airplane. I thought the plane was coming apart, so I watched it, and the object flew down across where we were and hit the air station on the island there.
“It exploded in smoke and flames and made a big noise and startled us all of course. Looked back up at the airplanes and you could see the big red spots on the airplanes. So we knew that the Japanese were attacking. About that time, you could look up and the sky seemed to be full of them.
“It looked like they were floating in the skies, not that the jets we see today and zooming everywhere…”
“We felt the ship shake…and we knew we had been hit a bomb…”
“All had smoke and multiple fires and smoke. It was a terrible site.”
Saturday’s event , commemorated the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, and was planned in conjunction with the Molino Mid-County Historical Society. The University of West Florida Historic Trust also provided a display of reproductions of WWII uniforms and other memorabilia for the event.
Courtesy images for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.