Comments on: NOAA Predicts Above Average Hurricane Season, And Here’s The List Of Storm Names

By: Sedition

Sedition — Sun, 24 May 2020 20:35:16 +0000

Nice. Maybe we’ll get a biblical locust swarm and hit the disaster trifecta this year.

By: BRING IT ON

BRING IT ON — Sat, 23 May 2020 23:35:00 +0000

Bring it on….maybe some put out of business people can get a much needed paycheck. That’s what insurance is for.

By: Janet

Janet — Sat, 23 May 2020 12:38:07 +0000

I lived in Atmore when Ivan went through. We went to Cullman for safety and when we returned, all along the highway and town syptreets looked like a war zone. Every tree in our yard was destroyed but our house was pretty much untouched. The following year, Dennis came to visit! I’ve since moved to the Midwest where I was raised and although I miss parts of the south, hurricanes are not one of them!

By: mat

mat — Fri, 22 May 2020 23:12:49 +0000

Alan,
What about Elana in 1985.
I remember her well.

By: Alan

Alan — Fri, 22 May 2020 21:30:33 +0000

If you live in the panhandle of Florida, sooner or later, one is going to pay you a visit. You don’t need anyone to predict that for you. The Pensacola area has been hit by hurricanes and tropical storms approximately 46 times since 1876, according to Pensapedia.

Some of our more recent storms:
Eloise (1975)
Frederic (1979)
Juan (1985)
Erin (1995)
Opal (1995)
Ivan (2004)
Dennis (2005)

It has been 15 years. This could be the year.

By: Concerned Observer

Concerned Observer — Fri, 22 May 2020 20:04:44 +0000

Spot on assessment David and with numbers to back it up. Like you say, formations don’t mean landfalls.

By: David Huie Green

David Huie Green — Fri, 22 May 2020 18:36:55 +0000

REGARDING:
““It seems like they say this every year.”
It seems like that because they say it every year…”

Note that they generally don’t predict landfalls, just the formations.
To check on their history of predictions or Seasonal Climate Summary, go to: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
and click on any X to see what they said.

For examples,
23 May 2019
“The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

9-15 Named Storms
4-8 Hurricanes
2-4 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median”

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

24 May 2018
“The 2018 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
10-16 Named Storms
5-9 Hurricanes
1-4 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-145% of the median”

David for being helpful

By: Concerned Observer

Concerned Observer — Fri, 22 May 2020 17:53:55 +0000

Easy to wonder about why they predict this every year BUT if you look at the statistics from the last 2-3 years, I believe this is warranted. Major hurricanes have been a big deal along the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Storms have defied intensity forecasts and have been harder to nail down accurate tracks. I understand the weather patterns have a great deal to do with this. People should definitely heed the warning of a potentially bad Hurricane season. Better to warn and not have than to have and be caught unprepared.

By: Chris Paul

Chris Paul — Fri, 22 May 2020 15:52:11 +0000

Dont they always predict this?

By: just sayin

just sayin — Fri, 22 May 2020 15:15:24 +0000

Don’t go getting yourself all up in a panic. They will send out the lesser forecast in a few months.